Downward trend in student enrollment expected to continue

by Stephanie Kosonen
DEMING – The downward trend in enrollment numbers in the Mount Baker School District is expected to continue for the 2010-2011 school year, based on an initial projection discussed at Thursday evening’s Mount Baker School Board meeting.
The number of students enrolled has dropped each year by up to 50 or 60 students consistently for the past six or seven years, said Business Manager Denise Keith.
It’s too early to say an exact number, but “it appears that trend is going to continue,” said Superintendent Dr. Richard Gantman.
That would make the rough estimate for next year about 1,947 students, Keith said. Right now the 2009-2010 average enrollment is at about 2,009 students, she added.
The district looks at multi-year trends in order to avoid counting anomalies in enrollment and registration, such as a large family moving out of the area, but specific current information like that is also used.
For instance, Gantman said the district will look at how many students are still enrolled now versus how many were here when the year started in September.
Also, he will visit with principals at each school to see if any families are moving in or out of the district. “We can talk family by family because we’re that small, and we have that kind of community knowledge,” Gantman said.
Estimating enrollment is a multi-stage process, and right now the numbers are not conclusive, Gantman said. “To grab at a number right now would result in that number being incorrect,” he said. “I tell the board to look at it with fuzzy vision and make our calculations with this inaccurate number now, and then we can keep updating that number in our budget calculations as we go.”
The number is updated as the superintendent and assistant superintendent visit with principals about school-specific changes and as enrollment changes month to month. In addition, high school enrollment typically drops in the spring.
As the year progresses, the district can fine-tune the 2009-2010 average enrollment.
A more accurate enrollment projection should be available in the spring, because that’s when kindergarten registration happens.
The district plugs that number in to next year’s enrollment, but looks at the past year’s registration to see if it matches enrollment, or more likely, if kindergarten enrollment was a bit more than what registration implied — not everyone registers, and there are also walk-ins throughout the year.
Keith said districts are very conservative and careful in their projections, because that is what drives funding and staffing.
The district will give their projections to the state for appropriations, so if the number is too high or too low, there could be problems with the number of staff on contract for the year. “We’ve never had that happen because we’ve always done a good job in our projections,” Keith said.
Schools typically have a lot of inelastic expenses in their budgets, like bus routes and teacher salaries, said Board Chairwoman Ellen Dodson, so it is a big deal when the budget projections are off.
“It’s wonderful to have smaller class loads, but you’re still paying the same teacher whether the class is 18 students or 24 students,” Dodson said. “And yet six kids makes a big difference in terms of money coming into the school.”